Lots of Disappointed iPhone Customers come July 2007
What’s not to absolutely love about the iPhone? EXCEPT:
- choice of carrier,
- the iPhone is locked,
- 2 year contract, price, and
- EDGE (lack of 3g).
Other than that who cares right? Well not exactly. 
Once the “ether” wears off the hard core techies and Apple Fan Boys, are going to realize Yes, the iPhone is a leap forward; but using it in real-life may not be a lot of fun. Sort of like how driving a Ferrari in Manhattan (New York City), doesn’t make a lot of sense.
First off, there is the selection of carrier: Cingular. Why cingular? Cingular made sense from an Apple negotiation point of view: Cingular does not have a music service, trails the other providers in market-share, and would benefit most from a partnership. I’m sure there are other reasons, but with this Stevie has most of the chips on his side. Cingular, plus Apple, is going to do way better than Cingular alone. GSM in the U.S. has a ways to go to catch up with CDMA.
Whether the iPhone is enough to start the revolution, only time will tell. In 6-9 months you are going to see offerings by Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG and others that won’t do everything, but will be good enough. It worked for MSFT, now the Telecommunication dudes get to start their copiers.
The new phones from the other guys will return a higher margin, thanks to the iPhones very high price point (everything else will look like a bargain)…and then the game will be on!
At $500.00 and $600.00 I don’t believe this iPhone is a consumer device, but more like a hard core, techie toy. The design while beautiful, looks awfully fragile. If I scratch my free or subsidized phone from Verizon, do I care? If I scratch this work of Art, I will most definitely care (God forbid I drop my “tech device of the year 2007″).
Guess what junior or lil’ sister, if you think you’re getting one of these?…think again.
It’s a given that the enterprise and crack-berry crowd won’t be swapping out their Blackberry Enterprise Servers anytime soon based on this announcement. This leaves the techies, Apple Fan Boys, and probably celebrity crowd. What’s the size of this market?. This is where the disappointment starts to creep in… How long will it take before the “I dropped my iPhone and the Screen Shattered and I can’t watch “The Office” any more Blogs” start to flow?
The iPhone is locked (at least so far), this plus the 2 year contract required from Cingular is a shame. I’m not a Cingular customer, but unless Cingular does something spectacular to improve service coverage, 2 years of dropped calls are going to get annoying, especially now that you have $600.00 plus accessories less in your pocket to spend on gas to actually visit someone in person, not to mention traveling outside of the U.S., so I won’t.
Then there is the matter of EDGE. Hard cores, Apple Fan Boys, and the Treo 7XX smart-phone crowd use EVDO for remote computing a lot. EVDO’s availability in the Treo was a huge deal, and made this already expensive phone, pretty much worth the money.
For now, until WiFi is everywhere (and it isn’t), having the ability to connect a laptop (MacBook Pro, sweet!) to the internet is essential. Is EDGE up to the tasks? My geek friends say No. EDGE may be OK for Yahoo push/mail and an occasional web page or two, but for Google Maps and continuous Internet connectivity, you’re gonna miss EVDO big time. Sure you buy a broadband laptop card with monthly service, but now you’re down even more money.
And by the way? Who ( in this crowd ) keeps a cell phone for 2 years? Who? iPhone Enterprise and iPhone Pro (speculation;) will be released in 12 months, with all sorts of new cool things (ie. developer SDKs, better integration, faster processor, increased storage )..Now the very restrictive Cingular contract (take a look, if you don’t believe me) will force you to buy out your old contract and buy into another 2 year deal…believe me, you are not going to be happy with this at all!!!
Are Early Adopters of the iPhone going to be disappointed come July 2007? With the first MacWorld screen shot, I would have bought at least two iPhones. But as the ether wears off, and the realization and anticipation of possibly dropped calls, and slower Network Access ( EGDE is slower than EVDO), two-year lock-in, seeps in, I think I’m turning into a kill joy!
Would love to hear from you why I’m being overly pessimistic (truth is: I am an Apple Fan Boy! ) I’m pretty sure my perspective would be a little different if I had one to review before June 
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Enterprise Pain Points » Blog Archive » iPhone’s Biggest Flaw (Probably Too Late To Correct )
Said this at 4:46pm:[...] Enterprise Pain Points Discussion of Things that Matter: People, Processes and Technology « Lots of Disappointed iPhone Customers come July 2007 [...]
Mykl
Said this at 4:49pm:To guess at the near future history of the iPhone, I’m inclined to look at the first three generations of the iPod. Remember, the first iPods had no iTunes Store, no record industry deals, and woefully small capacity, among other limitations*. They were just the first step.
If Apple plays it’s cards right, this iPhone is just the beginning. Apple has made some smart business moves to support it’s technology goals, in the past. I’m betting they’ll sell enough premium priced iPhones that all the other mobile service providers will be wanting to cut deals with Apple.
Oh, and if Cingular has any brains at all, next year they’ll let you buy the iPhone v2, if you extend your contract.
(* I wanted an iPod from day one, but chose to wait for larger storage and lower prices, which we all knew would come with time. Meanwhile I got busy ripping my CD collection into iTunes.)
jordan
Said this at 4:57pm:Mykl, thanks for the comment.
I kinda of agree, but in the first case you’re the iPod was a category setter, with very few peers. There are 500 million phones in the marketplace, and 95% of them are cheaper than the low-end iPhone. Yes, if Apple is smart, but i’ll be out of Apple’s hands if Cingular has control over the contract.
Secondly, by the time iPhone v2 is around, all of us early adopters will be locked into 2-year deals, and Cingular is not going to make it easier to get out of your contract without huge penalties.
We’ll see…
Nick
Said this at 7:40pm:How does Cingular “trail the other providers in market-share?”
According to their SEC filings “Cingular Wireless is the largest wireless carrier in the United States, serving 58.7 million customers. ” whereas Verizon only claims 57 million subs, Sprint 51 million, T-Mobile USA 24 million subs.
jordan
Said this at 7:45pm:Nick, you are absolutely correct! In numbers Cingular is the largest. In perception, (and the real world according to my friends that have Cingular) they have a reputation for the most dropped calls, despite the ads to the contrary.
I was mostly thinking about service, moreso than marketshare, but you are absolutely correct.